Model diagnostics and forecast evaluation for quantiles
Model diagnostics and forecast evaluation are closely related tasks, with the former
concerning in-sample goodness (or lack) of fit and the latter addressing predictive …
concerning in-sample goodness (or lack) of fit and the latter addressing predictive …
Conformal pid control for time series prediction
A Angelopoulos, E Candes… - Advances in neural …, 2024 - proceedings.neurips.cc
We study the problem of uncertainty quantification for time series prediction, with the goal of
providing easy-to-use algorithms with formal guarantees. The algorithms we present build …
providing easy-to-use algorithms with formal guarantees. The algorithms we present build …
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United
States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific …
States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific …
Usage of compartmental models in predicting COVID-19 outbreaks
Accurately predicting the spread of the SARS-CoV-2, the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic,
is of great value for global regulatory authorities to overcome a number of challenges …
is of great value for global regulatory authorities to overcome a number of challenges …
Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty
Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of
disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well …
disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well …
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United
States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific …
States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific …
Incorporating variant frequencies data into short-term forecasting for COVID-19 cases and deaths in the USA: a deep learning approach
Background Since the US reported its first COVID-19 case on January 21, 2020, the science
community has been applying various techniques to forecast incident cases and deaths. To …
community has been applying various techniques to forecast incident cases and deaths. To …
Title evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021–22 and 2022–23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations
SM Mathis, AE Webber, TM León, EL Murray… - Nature …, 2024 - nature.com
Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal
influenza epidemics. For the 2021–22 and 2022–23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting …
influenza epidemics. For the 2021–22 and 2022–23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting …
The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: delivering long-term projections to guide policy
Abstract Between December 2020 and April 2023, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub
(SMH) generated operational multi-month projections of COVID-19 burden in the US to …
(SMH) generated operational multi-month projections of COVID-19 burden in the US to …
Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational
awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent …
awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent …