Review of recent progress in tropical cyclone track forecasting and expression of uncertainties

JT Heming, F Prates, MA Bender, R Bowyer… - … Cyclone Research and …, 2019 - Elsevier
Abstract The Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) took place in
Hawaii, USA in December 2018. This review paper was presented at the Workshop under …

[HTML][HTML] Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth: A critical evaluation of the use of global flood forecasts for international humanitarian preparedness …

R Emerton, H Cloke, A Ficchi, L Hawker… - International Journal of …, 2020 - Elsevier
Humanitarian disasters such as Typhoon Haiyan (SE Asia, 2013) and the Horn of Africa
drought (2011–2012) are examples of natural hazards that were predicted, but where …

Current and potential use of ensemble forecasts in operational TC forecasting: Results from a global forecaster survey

HA Titley, M Yamaguchi, L Magnusson - Tropical Cyclone Research and …, 2019 - Elsevier
In order to understand the current and potential use of ensemble forecasts in operational
tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting, a questionnaire on the use of dynamic ensembles was …

[HTML][HTML] ECMWF activities for improved hurricane forecasts

L Magnusson, JR Bidlot, M Bonavita… - Bulletin of the …, 2019 - journals.ametsoc.org
ECMWF Activities for Improved Hurricane Forecasts in: Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society Volume 100 Issue 3 (2019) Jump to Content Jump to Main …

A global evaluation of multi‐model ensemble tropical cyclone track probability forecasts

HA Titley, RL Bowyer, HL Cloke - Quarterly Journal of the …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract At the Met Office, dynamic ensemble forecasts from the Met Office Global and
Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS‐G), the European Centre for Medium …

[PDF][PDF] Toward Earth system modeling with resolved clouds and ocean submesoscales on heterogeneous many-core HPCs

S Zhang, S Xu, H Fu, L Wu, Z Liu, Y Gao… - National Science …, 2023 - academic.oup.com
With the aid of the newly developed 'Sunway'heterogeneous-architecture supercomputer,
which has world-leading HPC (high-performance computer) capability, a series of high …

The effects of ocean surface waves on tropical cyclone intensity: Numerical simulations using a regional atmosphere‐ocean‐wave coupled model

B Zhao, G Wang, JA Zhang, L Liu, J Liu… - Journal of …, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
Tropical cyclones (TCs), especially landfalling intense storms often pose serious threats to
life and property in coastal areas. Although TC track forecast skill has been improved in the …

[HTML][HTML] A framework for building climate storylines based on downward counterfactuals: The case of the European Union Solidarity fund

A Ciullo, O Martius, E Strobl, DN Bresch - Climate risk management, 2021 - Elsevier
Recent research introduced the concept of climate storylines as an alternative approach to
estimate climate impact and better deal with uncertainties. A climate storyline is an event …

Analysis and forecast using dropsonde data from the inner-core region of Tropical Cyclone Lan (2017) obtained during the first aircraft missions of T-PARCII

K Ito, H Yamada, M Yamaguchi, T Nakazawa… - Sola, 2018 - jstage.jst.go.jp
The inner core of Tropical Cyclone Lan was observed on 21-22 October 2017 by GPS
dropsondes during the first aircraft missions of the Tropical Cyclones-Pacific Asian Research …

Improving best track verification of tropical cyclones: A new metric to identify forecast consistency

SD Ditchek, JA Sippel, PJ Marinescu… - Weather and …, 2023 - journals.ametsoc.org
This paper introduces a new tool for verifying tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts. Tropical
cyclone forecasts made by operational centers and by numerical weather prediction (NWP) …