Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system

V Brovkin, E Brook, JW Williams, S Bathiany… - Nature …, 2021 - nature.com
The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on
timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to …

Data-driven prediction in dynamical systems: recent developments

A Ghadami, BI Epureanu - Philosophical Transactions of …, 2022 - royalsocietypublishing.org
In recent years, we have witnessed a significant shift toward ever-more complex and ever-
larger-scale systems in the majority of the grand societal challenges tackled in applied …

A predictive timeline of wildlife population collapse

F Cerini, DZ Childs, CF Clements - Nature Ecology & Evolution, 2023 - nature.com
Contemporary rates of biodiversity decline emphasize the need for reliable ecological
forecasting, but current methods vary in their ability to predict the declines of real-world …

Quantifying resilience of humans and other animals

M Scheffer, JE Bolhuis, D Borsboom… - Proceedings of the …, 2018 - National Acad Sciences
All life requires the capacity to recover from challenges that are as inevitable as they are
unpredictable. Understanding this resilience is essential for managing the health of humans …

[HTML][HTML] Statistical physics approaches to the complex Earth system

J Fan, J Meng, J Ludescher, X Chen, Y Ashkenazy… - Physics reports, 2021 - Elsevier
Global warming, extreme climate events, earthquakes and their accompanying
socioeconomic disasters pose significant risks to humanity. Yet due to the nonlinear …

Anticipating critical transitions

M Scheffer, SR Carpenter, TM Lenton, J Bascompte… - science, 2012 - science.org
Tipping points in complex systems may imply risks of unwanted collapse, but also
opportunities for positive change. Our capacity to navigate such risks and opportunities can …

Food web rewiring in a changing world

TJ Bartley, KS McCann, C Bieg, K Cazelles… - Nature ecology & …, 2019 - nature.com
Climate change is asymmetrically altering environmental conditions in space, from local to
global scales, creating novel heterogeneity. Here, we argue that this novel heterogeneity will …

Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression

IA van de Leemput, M Wichers… - Proceedings of the …, 2014 - National Acad Sciences
About 17% of humanity goes through an episode of major depression at some point in their
lifetime. Despite the enormous societal costs of this incapacitating disorder, it is largely …

The resilience of plant–pollinator networks

J Bascompte, M Scheffer - Annual Review of Entomology, 2023 - annualreviews.org
There is growing awareness of pollinator declines worldwide. Conservation efforts have
mainly focused on finding the direct causes, while paying less attention to building a …

Generic indicators of ecological resilience: inferring the chance of a critical transition

M Scheffer, SR Carpenter, V Dakos… - Annual Review of …, 2015 - annualreviews.org
Ecological resilience is the ability of a system to persist in the face of perturbations. Although
resilience has been a highly influential concept, its interpretation has remained largely …