Introduction In countries with weak surveillance systems confirmed COVID-19 deaths are
likely to underestimate the death toll of the pandemic. Many countries also have incomplete …

Methods We performed Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) fitting with an age-structured
compartmental COVID-19 model to provide median estimates and credible intervals for the …

In countries with weak surveillance systems confirmed COVID-19 deaths are likely to
underestimate the death toll of the pandemic. Many countries also have incomplete vital …

Date of introduction and epidemiologic patterns of SARS-CoV-2 in Mogadishu, Somalia:
estimates from transmission modelling of 2020 excess mortality data | PREPRINT-MEDRXIV …