Improved methods for estimating equilibrium climate sensitivity from transient warming simulations

A Dai, D Huang, BEJ Rose, J Zhu, X Tian - Climate Dynamics, 2020 - Springer
Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) refers to the total global warming caused by an
instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO 2 from the pre-industrial level in a climate …

Observational constraints on the effective climate sensitivity from the historical period

KB Tokarska, GC Hegerl, AP Schurer… - Environmental …, 2020 - iopscience.iop.org
The observed warming in the atmosphere and ocean can be used to estimate the climate
sensitivity linked to present-day feedbacks, which is referred to as the effective climate …

Equilibrium climate sensitivity obtained from multimillennial runs of two GFDL climate models

D Paynter, TL Frölicher, LW Horowitz… - Journal of Geophysical …, 2018 - Wiley Online Library
Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), defined as the long‐term change in global mean
surface air temperature in response to doubling atmospheric CO2, is usually computed from …

Comparison of equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from slab ocean, 150‐year, and longer simulations

JP Dunne, M Winton, J Bacmeister… - Geophysical …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
We compare equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates from pairs of long (≥ 800‐year)
control and abruptly quadrupled CO2 simulations with shorter (150‐and 300‐year) coupled …

Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations

K Marvel, R Pincus, GA Schmidt… - Geophysical Research …, 2018 - Wiley Online Library
An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)
derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because …

Quantification of temperature response to CO2 forcing in atmosphere–ocean general circulation models

J Tsutsui - Climatic Change, 2017 - Springer
The present study establishes a general formulation to represent the behavior and variation
of an ensemble of complex climate models in terms of the global mean surface temperature …

[HTML][HTML] How accurately can the climate sensitivity to be estimated from historical climate change?

JM Gregory, T Andrews, P Ceppi, T Mauritsen… - Climate Dynamics, 2020 - Springer
The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, in K) to\(\hbox {CO} _ {2}\) doubling is a large
source of uncertainty in projections of future anthropogenic climate change. Estimates of …

Estimating transient climate response in a large‐ensemble global climate model simulation

BK Adams, AE Dessler - Geophysical Research Letters, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
The transient climate response (TCR), defined to be the warming in near‐surface air
temperature after 70 years of a 1% per year increase in CO2, can be estimated from …

Implications for climate sensitivity from the response to individual forcings

K Marvel, GA Schmidt, RL Miller… - Nature Climate Change, 2016 - nature.com
Climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 is a widely used metric for the large-scale response to
external forcing. Climate models predict a wide range for two commonly used definitions: the …

An estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity from interannual variability

AE Dessler, PM Forster - Journal of Geophysical Research …, 2018 - Wiley Online Library
Estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; the equilibrium warming in response to a
doubling of CO2) from observations is one of the big problems in climate science. Using …