Recent evidence of Hamilton (1983) suggests that crude oil prices had a strong impact on
the US business cycle well before 1973. Further, while textbook treat-ments of oil price …

Oil prices fell in half between the end of 1985 and the second quarter of 1986, giving rise to
a renewed debate over the effects of oil-price changes generally and whether the effects of …

Many of the quarterly oil price increases observed since 1985 are corrections to even bigger
oil price decreases the previous quarter. When one looks at the net increase in oil prices …

All but one of the US recessions since World War II have been preceded, typically with a lag
of around three-fourths of a year, by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum. This …

Strong evidence is found that oil prices no longer Granger cause many US macroeconomic
indicator variables in data after 1973. A number of potential explanations are explored: that …

The relationship between oil price shocks and US macroeconomic fluctuations advocated by
Hamilton (1983) broke down in the 1980s amidst a new regime of highly volatile oil price …

During the first quarter of 2002, the price of crude oil averaged $19.67 per barrel. Four years
later, in the first quarter of 2006, the average price of oil had risen to $63 per barrel. Indeed …

The increase in the real price of oil during 1973-74 is widely believed to have been a major
cause of inflation and recession both in the United States and abroad. This belief is based …

In an important paper, Hamilton (1983) demonstrated a strong correlation between oil price
changes and gross national product growth in US data. However, his study pertained to a …

Increases in oil prices have been held responsible for recessions, periods of excessive
inflation, reduced productivity and lower economic growth. In this paper, we review the …